Tuesday, October 25, 2005

Bought 100 TWX

Just as the title says, that's what I did, this is now the second time TWX (Time Warner Inc.) has been a part of my portfolio. I took up a sizable position in it back on June 24 at $17.10, then increased my position 50% when it dropped down to $16.15. I then rode the stock up as Charles Icahn announced he was going to raid it and sold it at $17.87 to fund my venture into GE. After running some accounting numbers I decided that if the stock dropped below $17.67 it would then be profitable for me to jump back into the stock(anything above the trading costs would offset profits), but looking at trends I decided I didn't want it for anything less than $17.50, because I was betting I could buy it at or below that price level.

Anyway, I think that TWX is undervalued at anything below $18.50, and considering pressures from investors and Icahn, if they were to ever split up the company it could be worth $21.50 (although I can't see them doing anything but selling off parts of AOL). Still I think if they were to make further progression in the selling off of AOL, then it would be enough of a catalyst to bring this stock up to $18.50, my short term price target. Still I think this company with some good numbers and steady growth, pressure to sell of its slacking AOL section, as well as share buybacks can push themselves up to $19.50 -$20.50 within a year.

They also give a nickel dividend, not much but if you're in it for the long term every little bit helps. Besides that if you dont like my advice, lets look at the professionals:

9 analysts have a HOLD on TWX.
7 analysts have a BUY on TWX.
8 analysts have a STRONG BUY on TWX.


With the lowest Price Target of $20.00 (which I think is very attainable), and the highest has a price target of $25, which is a little out there for within a year, but the mean points towards the lower end of about $22. I'll be sticking to $20.50 though as my high target.

Meanwhile:
I was dead on with ILSE, if I didn't have defensive triggers to keep profit I would have rode it all the way up to $16.00 Still the Risk/reward at 14 was not to my liking as much as it was when I picked it up at $12.97. If this stock dips below $15, I will consider repurchasing a position in it.

CSCO keeps on teetering around 17, it doesn't want to stay below it seems, so basically anything below 17 pick it up and you can keep on playing its wavy ride up and down 20 cents.

TMWD had a below consensus quarter, still they aren't reporting losses anymore and revenue keeps growing, still I think analysts are being to highly expecting of it and my position is still up, but I'd wait about a month or until it drops below $3 to reconsider increasing my position in it, all part of playing speculative stocks.

GE keeps dipping below $34, still giving potential for decent short term gains, and I just got my dividend from them today! I'm reiterating my buy at anything below $34 .

Another stock which is hitting my radar now is INTC (Intel Corp.) , at below $23 it is really cheap, although depending on its investors it may have a $1 downside, but I also think it has a $6 upside within the next year. A lucrative risk/reward for a solid company.

3 Comments:

At 7:33 AM, Blogger Salbert said...

TWX is alright, but I own GE myself so buy GE!!!

 
At 9:37 AM, Blogger Investing Monkey said...

I did own GE, but I jumped out of it to make some quick cash on ILSE, I was planning on getting back in seeing it down at $33.80 but my risk/reward was slightly higher on TWX so I decided on that. I'm going to reconsider near end of november when oil prices stop rising cause of hurricanes and start rising cause of heating cost demand. Something I'm hoping is a slight bit more predictable.

Now if Verizon would stop paying people 50 bucks to tear out their cable modem for a year I'd be set.

 
At 8:58 AM, Blogger Salbert said...

Verizon is dirt cheap with a good dividend, hold verizon living off the dividend and wait ffor good news.

 

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