Monday, October 17, 2005

CISCO SYS INC (NasdaqNM:CSCO)

Ok, let me start out with the fact that I own this stock, I made the mistake of buying it at $18.02, luckily the position was small and only accounts for about 4-5% of my portfolio. I did all the research, people on CNBC were raving about it, and most of all I have used their product. I think they offer good products that are pretty secure (as long as you don't have physical access to them, otherwise plug your laptop in and its all yours), hell I even took some CCNA intro course and did pretty well. But since then I have stood by and watched as its met my base price either coming up or going down at least 13 times, I hate it, I really hate it, of all the stocks I own its provided the least ROI of any stock in my portfolio. I have 3 dividend yielders all which are down from my basis price, but I don't care that they're down from their basis price. Because no matter what price they're at they are going to pay the same dividend, but Cisco, which has been stagnant in my portfolio since February, 2005 does nothing for me.

So now I look back at all the number crunching I did before I bought it, P/E Ratio's, ROE's, Cash on hand. I don't know how but I came up with a number of $22.50. Meanwhile since I don't trust my numbers too much considering I'm not a professional, I looked at some major brokerage' estimates, Citigroup, RBC, Smith Barney, Prudential... All of them with ranges of $26-30. I thought I had a good number, I thought I had a good pick, I made the mistake of having hope, and there is no room for hope on Wall Street.

But yet I think this stock is a buy at its current price, simply put buy whatever you can below $17.25, sell it as soon as it goes above $18, or if you don't want to do just that and wait to see if it goes to my new price target of $19.15, go ahead, but I'd still put a stop/loss on it at $18 once it goes above, its better to lock in your gains.

Also I would not sell this stock short, like I used to, many shareholders still have "Hope" when it comes to this company, whether it be they finally return value to the shareholder in the form of a dividend, better than expected sales growth, or a number of other catalysts which I cannot predict. People are begging for this horrid stock to go up, and there is only 1 negative analyst rating out of 34, I just find it hard to believe that this stock will spend more than a couple days below $17.

P.S. - GE hit my conservative price target today of $34.50, unfortunately I was in Business Law and missed the opportunity to lower my sell trigger (which was at $34.55), so it looks like I'll be holding onto it for a bit longer, but I still think GE is belongs at $35.50. But with hurricane season still on it's still going to remain undervalued.

I am not responsible for your trade decisions made or not made because of my opinion shared here. You should always do your own research before buying/selling a stock.

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