Wednesday, October 19, 2005

INTRALASE CORP. (NasdaqNM:ILSE)

I may have made one of the stupidest moves on my investing career, although based on the possible reward I am somehow justifying it in my head. I know I've been saying GE should be at $35.50, I still stand by it, but I've also been watching one stock over the past couple of months, which if you can't tell by the header... Is Intralase. After watching how GE was trending today I predicted it would go up to $34.20, I sad idly by as it came back up from $33.90 and it hit my limit trigger. (note I originally picked up GE at $33.09)

Anyway I then used those funds to buy 100 shares of ILSE at $12.97, plus the $7.00 commission. I really feel that this stock after looking at charts, analysts estimates future product line, and possible insurance implications that it is oversold at the moment.

Currently professional brokerage houses have 2 holds, 2 buys, and 1 strong buy on ILSE, they have price targets ranging from $16-26, with a mean of $20.88 ... Although I'm leaning towards the $16 target, with an upside of Wachovia's target of $18. Oppenheimer initiated coverage on the 11th when it was at about $14 I believe with a "Hold".

ILSE is also very near its 52week low, with a 52wk Range of $12.26 - $24.38, based on just regular good ol statistics its a lot more likely that it has upside than downside, and if you run some technical analysis it places that if this stock follows previous moving averages and trends it is easily placed at $15.50 - $16.00 . Also this stock is being prepared for its earnings call coming up on the 24th and most of the bad news is already calculated into the stock price, such as that in 2006 they're going to hit a good amount of international competition.

In the past couple days this company has also given out some press releases...Conveniently about a week before the earnings call. Such as :
Bausch & Lomb Study Demonstrates IntraLase(R) FS Laser Produces Superior Flap
Study Supports Use of IntraLase(R) FS Laser in Preparation of Cornea Tissue for Novel Corneal Transplants
IntraLase Enhances Product Development Capability with Key Appointment
These articles further support that they have strong products which are mainly used for LASIK eye surgery, which has been becoming increasingly popular. Although this is assuming that they aren't trying to buffer their stock before they report on Tuesday the 25th. LASIK surgery has also been continuing to be picked up by insurance companies which previously wouldn't cover it, so its becoming more cost effective someone to get a procedure done and being more respected as a mainstream form of treatment. And of existing medical institutions Intralase has 18% of medical offices and 14% of educational institutions as of the end of 2004. And considering corrective surgery takes only a couple minutes once started and can bring someone to 20/20 vision almost immediately, it'll only expected to grow. Did I mention they have some healthy copyrights on these products?

So anyway I think ILSE is cheap anything below $13.15, preferably under $13 during daily fluctuation. With short term potential of around $15 a share and long term of around $16-$18.

Although the stupid thing I did do is that I bought this stock with money from the sale of a stock that I sold earlier today...And it tends to take a little while for a trade to clear. And until my sale of GE clears I cannot sell my shares of ILSE under the idea of a "free ride". So if something happens that's a big surprise or if the sale doesn't clear before the earnings call on Tuesday then I could be stuck with the stock if it dips or unable to sell the stock if it peaks, but considering that I thought it was cheap I'm feeling confident in my decision.


I am not responsible for your trade decisions made or not made because of my opinion shared here. You should always do your own research before buying/selling a stock.

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