Monday, October 31, 2005

Worst Merger Ever...

Bye bye Steve Case, one of the main geniuses behind the AOL / Time Warner Merger is no longer going to be on the board of Time Warner. AOL in the past has mostly been looked at as Internet for Idiots, but since July 2004 in a big manager's meeting when they decided to start turning into a free content portal considering the increasing turn of advertisers to the internet is now making AOL appealing to outside parties such as Yahoo! And Google.

Still many board members that voted on the disastrous AOL/ Time Warner Merger are on the board, and I think if they were to resign it would also add some quick value to the stock TWX, which has risen at least a percent today. Removing AOL from its name isn't enough, they gotta remove the idiots behind the merger, Gerald Levin and Bob Pittman left earlier, weeding out these people promoted to their level of incompetence is one of the many steps to unlocking shareholder value.

Although Case still owns 0.3% of TWX, he will be handling a new company, his excuse for leaving, called Revolution LLC , a company focused on consumer driven health care, which is a growing trend and something if I remember correctly Bush mentioned in his recent speech (one of the few intelligent things he's brought up, the others including the capitals gains tax cuts, and the fact that something needs to be done about social security and Medicare which is in even worse shape than SS). While the current indemnity plans do work, I'd rather be in a consumer driven health care plan where if I'm healthy I can save my money that can basically be put in a pot, and if I'm sick I could actually shop around for a doctor... I wouldn't want to be limited to a doctor with 80% success rates on a procedure just because he's in my "network",when I could get a doctor with 95% success rates that might even work cheaper. Until now whatever the doctor said would go, and the insurance would pay up without question, but that's changing.

So quick summary:

TWX I love at anything at or below $17.50 a share, I wouldn't want a base price of anything above $17.70 though if you don't want to wait for a pullback. This stock is still worth a fraction of its peak before the "worst Merger Ever".

Consumer driven health and health care cost consolidation is going to be a growing business, a good play in that would be UNH, I missed the opportunity to get in on that at $50, but its still viable on a little weakness... Maybe under $55.

I am not responsible for your trade decisions made or not made because of my opinion shared here. You should always do your own research before buying/selling a stock.

Sunday, October 30, 2005

New Blogs

As If 1 Blog wasnt enough, I've decided to forgo the strategy loading up one blog with lots of random posts, and instead decided to go with the strategy of making 3 blogs with a lack of posts.

My other 2 blogs are here:
Tech & Review Oriented Blog - Joomla Monkey
Investing Educational Blog - Investing EDU

If anyone has thoughts on content to fill either one feel free to leave a comment here or below.

Thursday, October 27, 2005

Stay away from BOL

BAUSCH LOMB INC had some accounting irregularities going on down in Brazil, you know what that means?


Meanwhile they're numbers are also getting hurt cause a little company I mentioned a couple posts ago, Intralase, which is grabbing up market share and is up 2% higher in market share than I expected. Intralase dipped down below $15 today, If I had the money I'd buy it below 15 and ride it back up to $16-18, and if drops below $14 i'm liquifying one of my positions to get back in.

I am not responsible for your trade decisions made or not made because of my opinion shared here. You should always do your own research before buying/selling a stock.

Tuesday, October 25, 2005

Bought 100 TWX

Just as the title says, that's what I did, this is now the second time TWX (Time Warner Inc.) has been a part of my portfolio. I took up a sizable position in it back on June 24 at $17.10, then increased my position 50% when it dropped down to $16.15. I then rode the stock up as Charles Icahn announced he was going to raid it and sold it at $17.87 to fund my venture into GE. After running some accounting numbers I decided that if the stock dropped below $17.67 it would then be profitable for me to jump back into the stock(anything above the trading costs would offset profits), but looking at trends I decided I didn't want it for anything less than $17.50, because I was betting I could buy it at or below that price level.

Anyway, I think that TWX is undervalued at anything below $18.50, and considering pressures from investors and Icahn, if they were to ever split up the company it could be worth $21.50 (although I can't see them doing anything but selling off parts of AOL). Still I think if they were to make further progression in the selling off of AOL, then it would be enough of a catalyst to bring this stock up to $18.50, my short term price target. Still I think this company with some good numbers and steady growth, pressure to sell of its slacking AOL section, as well as share buybacks can push themselves up to $19.50 -$20.50 within a year.

They also give a nickel dividend, not much but if you're in it for the long term every little bit helps. Besides that if you dont like my advice, lets look at the professionals:

9 analysts have a HOLD on TWX.
7 analysts have a BUY on TWX.
8 analysts have a STRONG BUY on TWX.

With the lowest Price Target of $20.00 (which I think is very attainable), and the highest has a price target of $25, which is a little out there for within a year, but the mean points towards the lower end of about $22. I'll be sticking to $20.50 though as my high target.

I was dead on with ILSE, if I didn't have defensive triggers to keep profit I would have rode it all the way up to $16.00 Still the Risk/reward at 14 was not to my liking as much as it was when I picked it up at $12.97. If this stock dips below $15, I will consider repurchasing a position in it.

CSCO keeps on teetering around 17, it doesn't want to stay below it seems, so basically anything below 17 pick it up and you can keep on playing its wavy ride up and down 20 cents.

TMWD had a below consensus quarter, still they aren't reporting losses anymore and revenue keeps growing, still I think analysts are being to highly expecting of it and my position is still up, but I'd wait about a month or until it drops below $3 to reconsider increasing my position in it, all part of playing speculative stocks.

GE keeps dipping below $34, still giving potential for decent short term gains, and I just got my dividend from them today! I'm reiterating my buy at anything below $34 .

Another stock which is hitting my radar now is INTC (Intel Corp.) , at below $23 it is really cheap, although depending on its investors it may have a $1 downside, but I also think it has a $6 upside within the next year. A lucrative risk/reward for a solid company.

Monday, October 24, 2005


Playing with my trade triggers so I wouldnt have to worry about losing out on gains while I was in class, I set ILSE to sell at $14 incase it got a sudden "jump". Of course with my luck it hit this, I did want to hold on to it until 15, but when you get 7.94% gains(excluding trading costs) in one position within 4 trading days I see it as good reason to take a quick profit.

Note: This was a risky move on my part, But the reward paid off quickly.

Portfolio stats since February 15th:
Realized gains: 12.54%
Unrealized Gains: 6.4%

I am currently not very happy with my unrealized gains, BUT If I excluded trading costs it would be 8.28%, Also 57% of the difference is in Dividend Yielders, which I bought as long term investments. Currently my portfolio has higher than average trading costs, but I am justifying it with that sweet realized gains number, which now has beaten my End of Year Taget of 10.5% (1% a month), and the nice little divided stream I'm getting.

Now lets compare

S&P500 - Feb 15th - 1210.12 Oct 24th~3:30 - 1194.6 -1.28%
NASDAQ - Feb 15th - 2083.64 Oct 24th~3:30 - 2105.4 +1.02%
DOW - Feb 15th - 10,791.06 Oct 24th~3:30 - 10344.42 -4.31%

I'll take my portfolio instead :)

Now what to buy next...
I am currently watching GE, TWX, XEC and ILSE if there's a suitable re entry point... which will also depend on their earnings call tomorrow.

Saturday, October 22, 2005

Funny Money: Earnings, Fraud and 'Bud Pong'

Came upon an interesting article on

What I mainly got a kick out of was the following considering I've worked in the past for an AB distributor and also have about 5% of my portfolio in their stock.

Bar Games and War Games

Anheuser-Busch ended its "Bud Pong" promotion when executives found out it was being played improperly. Apparently, people were gasp! using beer, not water! The horror! The shock! An Anheuser-Busch representative said: "Bud Pong doesn't drunk people, people drunk people." (The company then announced plans to sell bongs for tobacco smoking and crack pipes as flower pots).

On a related note, a new Chinese vodka promises to eliminate hangovers. The beverage, Han, claims that Americans should keep drinking and partying so they don't even notice China taking over the world.

Meanwhile, Google is opening sites in Europe. The company wants to study Germany's tactics for world domination so that it doesn't make the same mistakes.

Wednesday, October 19, 2005


I may have made one of the stupidest moves on my investing career, although based on the possible reward I am somehow justifying it in my head. I know I've been saying GE should be at $35.50, I still stand by it, but I've also been watching one stock over the past couple of months, which if you can't tell by the header... Is Intralase. After watching how GE was trending today I predicted it would go up to $34.20, I sad idly by as it came back up from $33.90 and it hit my limit trigger. (note I originally picked up GE at $33.09)

Anyway I then used those funds to buy 100 shares of ILSE at $12.97, plus the $7.00 commission. I really feel that this stock after looking at charts, analysts estimates future product line, and possible insurance implications that it is oversold at the moment.

Currently professional brokerage houses have 2 holds, 2 buys, and 1 strong buy on ILSE, they have price targets ranging from $16-26, with a mean of $20.88 ... Although I'm leaning towards the $16 target, with an upside of Wachovia's target of $18. Oppenheimer initiated coverage on the 11th when it was at about $14 I believe with a "Hold".

ILSE is also very near its 52week low, with a 52wk Range of $12.26 - $24.38, based on just regular good ol statistics its a lot more likely that it has upside than downside, and if you run some technical analysis it places that if this stock follows previous moving averages and trends it is easily placed at $15.50 - $16.00 . Also this stock is being prepared for its earnings call coming up on the 24th and most of the bad news is already calculated into the stock price, such as that in 2006 they're going to hit a good amount of international competition.

In the past couple days this company has also given out some press releases...Conveniently about a week before the earnings call. Such as :
Bausch & Lomb Study Demonstrates IntraLase(R) FS Laser Produces Superior Flap
Study Supports Use of IntraLase(R) FS Laser in Preparation of Cornea Tissue for Novel Corneal Transplants
IntraLase Enhances Product Development Capability with Key Appointment
These articles further support that they have strong products which are mainly used for LASIK eye surgery, which has been becoming increasingly popular. Although this is assuming that they aren't trying to buffer their stock before they report on Tuesday the 25th. LASIK surgery has also been continuing to be picked up by insurance companies which previously wouldn't cover it, so its becoming more cost effective someone to get a procedure done and being more respected as a mainstream form of treatment. And of existing medical institutions Intralase has 18% of medical offices and 14% of educational institutions as of the end of 2004. And considering corrective surgery takes only a couple minutes once started and can bring someone to 20/20 vision almost immediately, it'll only expected to grow. Did I mention they have some healthy copyrights on these products?

So anyway I think ILSE is cheap anything below $13.15, preferably under $13 during daily fluctuation. With short term potential of around $15 a share and long term of around $16-$18.

Although the stupid thing I did do is that I bought this stock with money from the sale of a stock that I sold earlier today...And it tends to take a little while for a trade to clear. And until my sale of GE clears I cannot sell my shares of ILSE under the idea of a "free ride". So if something happens that's a big surprise or if the sale doesn't clear before the earnings call on Tuesday then I could be stuck with the stock if it dips or unable to sell the stock if it peaks, but considering that I thought it was cheap I'm feeling confident in my decision.

I am not responsible for your trade decisions made or not made because of my opinion shared here. You should always do your own research before buying/selling a stock.

Monday, October 17, 2005


Ok, let me start out with the fact that I own this stock, I made the mistake of buying it at $18.02, luckily the position was small and only accounts for about 4-5% of my portfolio. I did all the research, people on CNBC were raving about it, and most of all I have used their product. I think they offer good products that are pretty secure (as long as you don't have physical access to them, otherwise plug your laptop in and its all yours), hell I even took some CCNA intro course and did pretty well. But since then I have stood by and watched as its met my base price either coming up or going down at least 13 times, I hate it, I really hate it, of all the stocks I own its provided the least ROI of any stock in my portfolio. I have 3 dividend yielders all which are down from my basis price, but I don't care that they're down from their basis price. Because no matter what price they're at they are going to pay the same dividend, but Cisco, which has been stagnant in my portfolio since February, 2005 does nothing for me.

So now I look back at all the number crunching I did before I bought it, P/E Ratio's, ROE's, Cash on hand. I don't know how but I came up with a number of $22.50. Meanwhile since I don't trust my numbers too much considering I'm not a professional, I looked at some major brokerage' estimates, Citigroup, RBC, Smith Barney, Prudential... All of them with ranges of $26-30. I thought I had a good number, I thought I had a good pick, I made the mistake of having hope, and there is no room for hope on Wall Street.

But yet I think this stock is a buy at its current price, simply put buy whatever you can below $17.25, sell it as soon as it goes above $18, or if you don't want to do just that and wait to see if it goes to my new price target of $19.15, go ahead, but I'd still put a stop/loss on it at $18 once it goes above, its better to lock in your gains.

Also I would not sell this stock short, like I used to, many shareholders still have "Hope" when it comes to this company, whether it be they finally return value to the shareholder in the form of a dividend, better than expected sales growth, or a number of other catalysts which I cannot predict. People are begging for this horrid stock to go up, and there is only 1 negative analyst rating out of 34, I just find it hard to believe that this stock will spend more than a couple days below $17.

P.S. - GE hit my conservative price target today of $34.50, unfortunately I was in Business Law and missed the opportunity to lower my sell trigger (which was at $34.55), so it looks like I'll be holding onto it for a bit longer, but I still think GE is belongs at $35.50. But with hurricane season still on it's still going to remain undervalued.

I am not responsible for your trade decisions made or not made because of my opinion shared here. You should always do your own research before buying/selling a stock.

Saturday, October 15, 2005


I originally began watching this company back in mid April, it was in the process of buying Magnum Hunter resource for about 2.1 Billion. Like in most acquisitions the buying stock took a hit in valuation, giving you a good opportunity to jump in. I got in at $36.20 wand sat idly by as the stock dipped down to $35, but I was still confident in my buy, the stock was still cheap and is again now. I sold my shares at $45.75 with no regrets, and as oil prices dipped many companies took a big hit.

Currently Cimarex is trading at a P/E ratio of slightly over 10, with an earnings per share of $4.01, and I think its too cheap. This stock is a strong oil play and with recent dips in prices is a good opportunity to get in. in fact if I had the money I would be buying this stock at anything below $40, if you're more careful its likely to pick it up somewhere between the $39 - $39.50 range, today it was trading as low as $38.82 before it closed at $40.23. if you pick it up somewhere within that range I think that you can easily see a gain of 10-12% within 6 months. The gains resulting of either the stock trading at a higher market multiple more inline with that of some other companies in the sector, such as ExxonMobil(XOM) which trades at a P/E of about 12.75 or actual earnings growth which have been in line with XEC's stock price with a PEG of 1.04, which is very healthy.

I am not responsible for your trade decisions made or not made because of my opinion shared here. You should always do your own research before buying/selling a stock.

Monday, October 10, 2005

Tumbleweed Communications Corp. (Nasdaq:TMWD)

A speculative small cap stock that I have owned since April, I first came upon it when reading newsfeeds about how Microsoft would be getting into the security game and about how Tumbleweed was small enough to stay under the radar. Microsoft is still working on their client security system which they will most likely package with Vista, and then the ensuing fines the EU will impose on them for packaging it with windows...unless of course they offer a "reduced security edition", just like their "reduced media edition".

Anyway there are two main reasons I have liked TMWD; Government contracts, and Bank security. With government contracts I'm talking about the military, not just the Army, or Air Force, but all four military branches. Besides that they've got numerous contracts with major financial institutions. I figure if their product is relied on by these types of institutions its hard to believe it will be going out of business anytime soon.

I originally bought this stock at $2.98, and stuck with it during a house of pain when it was near dropped around 30% , although now my position is up over 20%. This stock during the bubble was well over $100, now thats a real house of pain. Although if this stock went up for every press release it has issued then it'd be at 52 week highs, but just like Cisco (who also has a ridiculous amount of press releases) it seems the only thing that will boost this company is good numbers.

TMWD is a small cap stock, with low volumes so it can be very volatile, normally going up and down 3-5% daily, so if you decide to buy it MAKE SURE YOU USE A LIMIT ORDER. Market orders are always a no-no when investing, and when I first started investing I made the mistake of using them and probably paid 3-20 cents more than I should have per share. I paid about 8 cents more a share on TMWD than I could have if I only had used a limit order.

I also don't have a problem with profit taking, and plan to do so once this stock starts getting above $4.50, and if it gets up to $5.00 I'm dumping every single share I have as quickly as possible. As far as I know all their major contracts are remaining and if they manage to show a profit at least one quarter inbetween now and then it will easily get into that target range. Although remember this is more of a speculative play in my opinion, you're betting on the company's growth, and speculative stocks should not be used for non descretionary funds, so no IRA investing here. If for some reason this stock has better than expected numbers a short squeeze could push it even higher, and if I see this stock over $6 after a big jump I would actually sell it short considering its volatility you can easily buy it back to cover within a week or two giving yourself an easy 5 or 10% profit.

I am not responsible for your trade decisions made or not made because of my opinion shared here. You should always do your own research before buying/selling a stock.

Friday, October 07, 2005


Many blue chips have become very cheap with the recent rise in energy costs mostly thanks to hurricanes Katrina and Rita, driving down the price of one particular blue chip, GE.

I personally recommend this stock at anything below $34, I picked up 44 shares at $33.09 with the intent of a trade. Only to find GE also was paying a regular quarterly $0.22 dividend so I concluded to hold onto it even longer. If I decide to stay for the short term I plan to hold on to it until my price target of $35.50 (or a highly conservative $34.50) based on the current P/E ratio and expected EOY earnings.

This stock also has good long term potential, besides being a dividend yielder (which everyone should have 10-20% of a healthy diversified portfolio invested in) with a dividend yield of 2.70% at its current closing price on Oct 7 of $34.22. GE has shown steady growth in the double digits, and according to their earnings forecasts could peak at 16%. Many professional brokers see this stock going to at least $37.00 within the next 12 months to as high $45.00 (mean-$41.50) according to the information I'm provided with by my broker - Scottrade. Also available publicly at and other various sites.

But it only pays if you own it.

I am not responsible for your trade decisions made or not made because of my opinion shared here. You should always do your own research before buying/selling a stock.