Monday, November 28, 2005

Bought 100 shares of ALLSCRIPTS (MDRX)

Due to a recent debt offering Allscripts took a big decline a week ago, trading down to nearly 14.01. This overselling was not called for, its still a good company, even though this debt offering move didn't make much sense considering that they have 90 million in cash.

The stock had a slight bounceback last week but is pulling back today on very light volume. (only 170,000 shares trading hands by 11:15) I see this as an opportunity to pick some up on this weakness. I like the stock up to the point of $16 (about 10% up from its current position), if I run some more conservative numbers I still see it at $15.50 for a short term.

If you're looking at a 1 year range your institutional investors have an average 1 year target estimate of $18.95, lowest being $17, which is very attainable.

I recommend buying this stock at anything under $14.40

I am not responsible for your trade decisions made or not made because of my opinion shared here. You should always do your own research before buying/selling a stock.

Monday, November 21, 2005

Sandisk is nearing a buying opportunity

If you owned any Sandisk stock today, I'm sorry.

But now is not the time to sell, you still have a few dollars back up. I wouldn't call its current position a "Bottom", that is too hard to call until you see the trading for the rest of the week. but its also a very strong possibility that it will spike above $50 in the short term ($53) within the next year. This situation makes SanDisk stock a good for a trade. I would however not buy this for a long-term investment. If you choose to buy SanDisk Corp. (SNDK), I wouldn’t consider a position unless it was under $47, preferably under $45 depending on how the market reacts this week.

Here's what the S&P analyst has to say about SanDisk:
"While this is likely to have a negative impact on average selling prices," Stice wrote in a research report, "we expect this to be somewhat offset by expanding market opportunities for flash-based technology. Also, we believe consumer demand remains relatively strong and SanDisk has an attractive market position."
He has a 1 year estimate of $55

I am not responsible for your trade decisions made or not made because of my opinion shared here. You should always do your own research before buying/selling a stock.

Friday, November 18, 2005

XEC Under $37 and a sum up

I'm continuing to put my money where my mouth is, so when I said XEC was cheap I meant it. Now that its under $37 I'm jumping in for a trade.

Meanwhile GE hit the target of $35.50 I set for short term gains (I said I liked it at anything under $34)

ILSE is at $17.35 after that moderate quarter that most investors were expecting them to bomb (I liked it at anything under $14)

CSCO is down badly on acquisition costs over buying SFA @ $43 a share, I originally recommended it to buy below $17 and sell above $18, believe it or not right before they reported in after hours trading they made it to $18, then dropped like a rock, CSCO I wouldn't poke with a stick right now as tempted as I am to mon back at $17.

INTC I liked at $23.50, its now above $25, but I wouldn't want to ride it much longer, rather I'd want to be on the AMD roller coaster.

TMWD I was dead wrong, analysts had too high expectations and this stock just got butchered unfairly.

BOL was down for about 3 weeks after their funky accounting practices down south, now it seems to be back on track.

MLNM is above the $10.50 I said to sell it at, I wouldn't want to hold it much above that.

And TWX has seen a nice pop since yesterday and is now above $18

Thursday, November 17, 2005


I just liquidated my position in Millenium Pharmaceuticals at $10.38. It was originally purchased at $9.15.

Portfolio is now at 14.12% realized gains since Feb 15, 2005.

Meanwhile The Nasdaq 100 hit a 52 week high, The Nasdaq Composite was at a 52 week high last I checked, and The S&P 500 is nearing a 52 week high. Its very likely motivational traders will be jumping in as these barriers are being broken.

Dumped TWX and VLCM

Time Warner Had a decent spike today so I dumped it and took my profits.

My Portfolio now has realized growth of 13.6% for the year.

I heard Cramer last night talking about Volcom, so I went to their website and checked it out. And wow I was impressed with their line, I personally hate Hollister and Abercrombie and Fitch
(The company not the stock) but I see a major appealing to the high school to college market trying to grab your average preppy youth "skater" boy/girl. meanwhile they have some offerings which do seem similar to Hollister/AnF like stores as well which may appeal to the "preppy" market.

It looks like most of their marketing is towards "skaters" but it looks like this brand has lots of potential.

Their motto "Youth Against Establishment" I find very hilarious, considering that the brand is a corporation, and thus the pinnacle of establishment, just add in some Dow-checmical-acceptable-risk-evil and some sweat shops and you're set on huge profit margins.

Thats what I love about these stores, their clothes are junk but they market them effectively and charge 400% cost...gotta love establishemnt...and the "Youth Against Establishment" that feed into it.

Has anyone seen Volcom or any of the Surfers/Skaters/Rockers/Snowboarders that they seem to appeal to? I'm interested in picking up at least 2 grand in shares.

Starbucks had to fight for its own brand in Russia

It looks like Russia is one of Starbucks next targets for expansion, while they currently have no stores ther, their coffee is used in some coffee houses which were all the rage about 5 years ago in Moscow. But after they failed to open any stores the rights were transferred to OOO Starbucks of Russia, separate from the Seattle based company.

OOO Starbucks was simply squatting on the brand and wanted to charge $600,000 to starbucks of seattle to get their rights back. so Starbucks of Seattle tok them to court trying to fight for the right to their intellectual property. In Russia the business of registering trademarks and selling them back to their true owners is widely practiced.

Although what I'm concerned about is the fact that Tea is the preferred hot beverage of Russians. Will the Tazo Chai I often see in the american stores be enough to please the Russians and keep them coming back for more?

If I were a SBUX holder I'd be dreaming of the day when Russians are making jokes about how there's two Starbucks across the street from each other just like I do on my lovely adventures in New York City.

I am not responsible for your trade decisions made or not made because of my opinion shared here. You should always do your own research before buying/selling a stock.

Tuesday, November 15, 2005

MCD going to $40?

Bill Ackman, who is a major shareholder of MCDONALDS CP (NYSE:MCD) is trying to push up the value of MCD to $40+.

Fueled by the recent success of pushing a spin off announcement of Tim Horton's by (WEN) Wendy's International Inc. A successful coffee chain. Ackman wants similar success at the Golden Arches.

The Plan Outlines:
  • New financing and IPO proceeds would be used to refinance McDonald's existing net debt, estimated to be $5 billion at year end.
  • Funds raised would also repurchase 316 million McDonald's shares at $40 a share and pay for $300 million in fees and transaction

Somewhere between 9 and 10 thousand McDonald's locations are corporate owned, Ackman's plan would reduce this amount by over 60%.

Management at McDonald's has already rejected his plan initially, but he plans to push this restructuring and hopes to move it forward with as little hostility as possible.

You can read more here and here.

I wouldn't consider a position in MCD at its current levels, it would have to drop down below $32.50 for me to take interest. YUM seems like it is a better buy if you want to play the fast food chains.

I am not responsible for your trade decisions made or not made because of my opinion shared here. You should always do your own research before buying/selling a stock.

Friday, November 11, 2005

TWX's possible effect on GOOG

AOL (Internet for idiots) is still being considered by Microsoft and Google. But Microsoft main point in acquiring AOL, or at least sections of it is not to advance themselves but to hinder Google. AOL is going to be passed around like the little pawn it is in the face off between these giants.

As Chris Pirillo Puts it
"Were Google to acquire AOL, they'd start wiping the walls with the competition (as if they weren't doing so already). Google needs AOL 1/10th as much as MSN does. "

This makes me think Microsoft will put their huge amount of cash on hand to use and possible fork out the value of AOL times 2 to acquire it. This will most likely hurt MSFT in the short term, since buyers normally go down, and may hurt GOOG temporarily considering the slightly reduced revenue stream. So who will benefit? Time Warner!

although I do own 100 shares of Time Warner I do plan on getting rid of them when they manage to get somewhere above $18 (I've been getting impatient with the stock and think my money has more growth potential elsewhere). But for those with patience TWX still definitely has some potential behind it. GOOG will see a hit if it loses to MS giving a good buying opportunity, and MSFT is cheap right now.

I am not responsible for your trade decisions made or not made because of my opinion shared here. You should always do your own research before buying/selling a stock.

Thursday, November 10, 2005

Capital Gains Tax Cut Extension Shot Down

President Bush's growth package in 2003 (One of the few smart things he's done while in office)

In this article Grassley Unveils Tax Cut Plans
Grassley in order to add an additional 10 billion to tax income provided a proposal that we extend Bush's growth package 1 year from its ending of 2008 (which reduces the tax on capital gains to 15% if you have the position for over a year). This is an attempt to cover for increased spending elsewhere. Meanwhile Bush's tax reform panel is pushing for an extension to 2010

While many argue that this tax cut would only benefit the rich, I tend to disagree. It only benefits those smart enough to invest!

I am only 22 and after observing many of those around me have realized the importance of saving for retirement, I've seen men in their 40's that consider saving for retirement putting some money into a savings account they started a couple years ago and buying their daily lottery ticket. Meanwhile others are just completely irresponsible with their money, running up thousands of dollars on their credit cards only to make the minimum payment.

This is a Capitalist society, I hold no pity for those who don't have the initiative to begin saving, planning, familiarizing themselves with the market or finding a professional if they don't have time. There is no later, there is now, Unleash the power of the Time/Value of money.

The Windfall Oil Tax? What a load

Seriously trying to tax oil companies extra since they made billions of dollars off Katrina and Wilma etc is pure political nonsense. Must we remind our government that we are in a capitalists society?

"Sen. Charles Grassley, R-Iowa, in a letter to API, the oil industry group, called on its members to devote part of their profits to a federal program that helps low-income families pay their heating costs." -From an article by Sean Higgins of IBD

I couldn't disagree more, by taxing them extra when they make money, we are discriminating against the industry, companies like Exxon-Mobil (XOM) are already paying their 35% corporate tax rate, not to mention the government is taxing any dividends they pay, as well as capital gains made off the shareholders, plus they are taxing fuel by the time it gets to the pump which can vary from state to state.

And Grassley is demanding they pay an additional 10%? Crude prices are dropping, so is natural gas, but as long as crude is above $40 and Natural gas above $5 these energy companies will show healthy profits. Its natural supply and demand activity, gas prices are dropping, and hopefully the government cracks down on anyone that was unreasonably raising prices. But we must remember there were these things called "Hurricanes" that tend to cause hundreds of millions of damage to offshore oil rigs and shut down refineries; such events do tend to affect Supply & Demand....

Secondly I doubt Grassley would be the first to throw out government support of tax cuts if these companies earnings were at stake. Yet meanwhile the government managed to push through an energy bill which adds billions of dollars of pork(not all of it was useless).

But sometimes I just wonder which lobbyist is pushing for some of these ridiculous ideas.

Wednesday, November 09, 2005

PORN on your cellphone?

19% of all web traffic is porn, the porn industry is about 52 billion worldwide, 25% of internet searches are for porn. Wireless carriers are putting in a rating system for video cellphones and this means only one thing! the porn industry is spreading to cell phones as soon as standards are in place.

So buy MOT and BRCM, because people are going to want the cutting edge in cell phone technology from Motorola, and will also need the latest in hands free technology (namely bluetooth) from Broadcom.

-Gotta love Cramer

Tuesday, November 08, 2005

XEC is cheap, SWKS and CNXT buyable?

I have mentioned XEC before, it saw a nice spike up to above $41 for a nice short term gain, if you feel like still touching energy I think Cimarex(XEC) is going back above $40. As long as natural gas is above $5, and barrels of crude are above $40 energy is still a decent play, but tech is going to be a better play the next couple of months.

Meanwhile... Anyone got any opinions on Skyworks Solutions(SWKS)? A decent play on Motorola that I think is going to $6 ... Also Conexant(CNXT) I'm liking closer to $2 a share, and like it up to $the $2.40 to $2.50 range, any opinions?

I am not responsible for your trade decisions made or not made because of my opinion shared here. You should always do your own research before buying/selling a stock.

Monday, November 07, 2005

Random Quotes As I Hear Them...

"Of the billionaires I have known, money just brings out the basic traits in them. If they were jerks before they had money, they are simply jerks with a billion dollars. "

"We enjoy the process far more than the proceeds. "

-Warren Buffett


Although this company has 2 approved drugs on the market (ever hear of Velcade?), and its been trying to cut unneccessarry costs in order to become profitable, it is actually not going to effect its short term gains, but its potential pipeline drugs may get the axe.

While Millenium still has a pipeline with strong enough to consider it a speculative play, this company is beginning to focus more on oncology, but their potential to turn a profit may be realized, a rarity in the biotech's it seems.

As a note I received some shares of Millenium which were purchased at $9.15 as a form of debt repayment, I plan on holding onto this stock up to my price target of $10.50.

I am not responsible for your trade decisions made or not made because of my opinion shared here. You should always do your own research before buying/selling a stock.

Thursday, November 03, 2005

Parsons vs Icahn

Reuters just posted this interesting article

Here's a quick Summary-

Chief Executive Richard Parsons on Thursday said he sees billionaire investor Carl Icahn as a short-term investor seeking to jack up the stock price and sell it off..."His goal is to get the stock price up to a point where he can sell it,"

"He's articulated what all of us are feeling," Parsons said. "He thinks (the stock) is undervalued. He's right. (But) the remedy he has proposed is not likely to accomplish what we both want," Parsons said.

Time Warner is continuing to be sold off now, down 22 cents from opening price last time I checked. It looks like this could cause further turmoil on the board if Icahn gets a spot, while his push for an outrageous share buyback was met halfway (which was probably his goal in the first place) this extra money which should be used to pay off debt could cause them to be dropped to 3 ratings above junk level. Besides that AOL also made an acquisition today of musicnow, with the purchaser almost always taking a hit. With this newly found opposition between Parsons and Icahn I'm more tempted to dump TWX at $18.50.

Random Quote As I Hear Them

"...The Arabs have taken billions of dollars out of this country, and now they must put it back. It is ebb and flow, tidal gravity. It is ecological balance. You are an old man who thinks in terms of nations and peoples. There are no nations; there are no peoples. There are no Russians. There are no Arabs. There are no third worlds. There is no West. There is only one holistic system of systems; one vast, interwoven, interacting, multivaried, multinational dominion of dollars..."

"...There is no America; there is no democracy. There is only IBM, and ITT, and AT&T, and DuPont, Dow, Union Carbide, and Exxon. Those are the nations of the world today..."

-Arthur Jensen, a character from "Network"(1976)

Wednesday, November 02, 2005


Wow, Intel is up almost 2 and a half percent as I'm watching it now, something I wasnt expecting today. After their last last report they took a big hit in their stock price and anyone in above $23 was entering the "House of Pain", but for a tech company thats trading at bearly above a 1 PEG Ratio, a nifty little dividend, and continued factory expansion who shouldnt want this stock at anything under $23.

Their most recent news being the reopening of their Chandler facility, which is being renovated so that they can output more chips, that are more compact, which means lower production costs and more profits. This 2 Billion dollar investment has created more jobs as well, hiring new employees and training them tends to be a sign of growth.

Besides that Intel reports 8 times a year and gives guidance each time, this makes it hard to get an edge, but the last report wasnt bad, it was in line, and their stock took a hammering in sell offs for people expecting perfection as far as I can guess. The fact that no one can get a real edge on this stock doesnt make it a bad one, It means its a safe play, even with their bad management and constant pressure from AMD, they still mange to be the market leader, and although they might be losing some of the market share, they continue to have high margins, which hurts dell, not intel.

Conservatively I think this stock has a 3 dollar upside and a 1 dollar downside, but even if I were to raise my estimates I still dont see more than a dollar downside, this is a low risk safe play and I like it at $23.

I am not responsible for your trade decisions made or not made because of my opinion shared here. You should always do your own research before buying/selling a stock.

TWX beats estimates by $.02

Grabbed this off Reuters - Now I'm feeling good about my reccomendation to buy TWX, and the 100 shares I bought myself. I'm going to watch the ticker close this morning and might sell if it opens up more than a dollar. you can read the full article here . As much as I think TWX is undervalued I'm seeing a value play opening up in Intel (INTC) which has been beaten to a pulp and I think will have a soft bottom at somewhere between $21.85-$22.15

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Time Warner Inc. (NYSE:TWX - News) on Wednesday reported an 80 percent jump in third-quarter profit, beating analyst expectations, as high-speed Internet and digital phone services drew more subscribers and online advertising sales increased.

Addressing concerns by billionaire activist Carl Icahn, Time Warner also said it more than doubled its stock buyback commitment to $12.5 billion from $5 billion.

The world's largest media company said earnings rose to $897 million, or 19 cents per share, from $499 million, or 11 cents per share, a year earlier.

Tuesday, November 01, 2005

Ask The Investing Monkey

And now for the newest section - Ask the Investing Monkey

I saw on one of your blogs (Investing Monkey?) that you had used "trade triggers." I'm working on a story about these, mostly focusing on Ameritrade, and was wondering if I could talk to you about how you've used the tools (tied trades to move in volume, index, etc.)? Or just like stop-loss trades? Let me know.
Worth Civils

The Wall Street Journal Online

Well first let me mention that I'm very proud to have a new reader to my little corner of the internet world. Now to get to your question. As to the name of my blog, it is "Unleashing The Power Of Mediocrity", Investing Monkey is just a user name I came up with because my desired one was taken.

As far as I'm concerned Ameritrade's "Trade Triggers" feature is an effective marketing ploy in order to draw investors to their site and consider them as a brokerage. I once considered them as my brokerage but didn't like their higher trading commissions and higher minimum account value and instead chose Scottrade, which I also note is not on Ameritrade's selective research. But I found the actual trade triggers system is for any of my trading purposes, useless, and basically an overglorified stop/limit order system.

If I were to invest in a stock, I would not base my investment on how the S&P 500 is doing, often my portfolio stays flat when the S&P is down, moves up 1 and a half percent when the S&P goes up one percent, and when it goes up a half percent my portfolio seems to go down a percent... I can't predict the days actions to a very good degree, but that's what makes investing fun when you can detach your emotions from your money. There are way too many factors to base purchasing an individual stock on the moves of the S&P 500, NASDAQ composite, or DJIA is doing.

As to investing based on volume, if I were to do that I would not base base my purchases just on volume, there are numerous 3rd party programs and organizations (mostly as annoying 3 am infomercials) that have written programs that will do this technical analysis for the day trader to the novice trader. Often these moves can happen within minutes and require constant attention and more complex algorithms than what it seems Ameritrade's trade triggers allow you to do.

Basically if I were to set a stop loss trade based on an index fund, the only thing I would be buying is the ETF based on that index, or sector I was interested in, couldn't I just as easily put a limit/stop on that ETF? Seriously what's the purpose?

As for basing a purchase on % change, I'm sorry but most of the math I can either do in my head, and I also tend to run some chart analysis before setting a bottom, but if I'm going to sell based on say a stock I own drops 8% from my cost basis I just use a calculator, its really not that hard and takes longer to find the calculator in your start menu than to actually do the calculation, then set the limit to sell at that actual number.

Also this tool is of no advantage to the long term trader, I tend to have 4 long term positions and have 3 short term positions in my portfolio at all times, and my selling of those 3 short term positions is mostly based on research I've done while I own the stock and its fluctuations since my purchase. I'm fortunate enough to have access to the computer around 5-6 hours of the trading day and take at least 30 seconds out of every hour to check my stocks. Currently the only stocks I do have limit orders on are 2 of my short term positions millennium Pharma and Time Warner, which I've speculated that I will see a Dollar jump from the price I purchased them at, and respectively have limit sells on each of them at those prices in order to lock in those gains, because I always decide at what price levels down or up that I'm willing to liquidate a short term position before purchasing.

The one thing I do like that ameritrade has is that you can set the triggers to expire on any specific date, something that is not offered by Scottrade, which only lets you set trade to expire at the end of the day or good until cancelled.

Hope that helped you some Worth,
Have a Bullish Day